All eyes on Hurricane Ian

Lazaro Aleman
ECB Publishing, Inc.

As of press time, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 10 a.m.
Category 3 Hurricane Ian was just past the westernmost end of Cuba, was tracking northward into the Gulf at 12 mph, with the Big Bend area still well contained within its potential strike zone, although the latest projections showed the storm veering more easterly toward Florida’s west coast.
Still, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) advised that shifts in direction could well yet occur, and the National Weather Service (NWS) continued forecasting possible tropical storm conditions for our area as early as Wednesday night.
Ian, which some forecasts earlier indicated could strengthen into a Category 4 storm before making landfall, will be the first major storm to strike Florida since Category 5 Hurricane Michael devastated the Panhandle in 2018. A Category 4 storm carries sustained winds of between 130 and 156 mph.
According to Tuesday’s 8 a.m. advisory from the NHC, Ian was packing sustained winds of 125 mph and was battering the western end of Cuba with high winds and life-threatening storm surge.
The NHC said a hurricane watch was in effect from the Anclote River northward to the Suwannee River, as was a tropical storm warning for the same area. Also in effect was a tropical storm watch from north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass west of Apalachicola.
And a storm surge watch was in effect from the Anclote River to the Aucilla River.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions can be expected within the designated area. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions can be expected.  And a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.
Governor Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for the state’s 67 counties, making more resources available for storm preparations and putting the Florida National Guard on standby.
The federal government also on Saturday declared an emergency declaration for the state, which authorized FEMA to provide support for debris removal and emergency protective measures, including direct federal assistance under the public assistance program.
In Jefferson County, Emergency Management (EM) was meeting with emergency service responders and other related services in preparation for the possibility of the storm striking this area.
The EM additionally established two locations where residents could pick up sandbags. One location was at the Jefferson Fire Rescue Department at 57 Martin Road. The other was at a lot across the street from the Wacissa United Methodist Church at 14507 Waukeenah Highway. Both locations were opened noon to 7 p.m. on Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept. 26-27. Residents were advised to bring shovels.
State and local officials were generally urging Floridians to review their hurricane preparedness plans and stock up on supplies. Already on Monday, some parts of the state were experiencing runs on food, water, medicine, batteries and fuel as people rushed to get ready.
According to the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, Ian was expected to continue moving north at 12 mph Tuesday and then turn toward the north-northeast and experience a reduction in forward speed into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
If it stayed on course as forecast, Ian’s center was expected to approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Per the NHC advisory, the hurricane-warning zone extended from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Forecasters, however, warn that it was possible for the storm to shift again as it progressed northward, adding that a wind shear factor in the Gulf could further affect its development. Meanwhile, it was reported that NOAA was conducting high-altitude flights and that the NWS had launched extra weather balloons to further narrow the storm’s projected path in the forecast models.
Whatever its size, intensity and eventual track, however, meteorologists said Ian was a formidable storm that posed risks of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, strong winds, hazardous seas, and isolated tornadic activity in parts of the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle.
If it struck Florida’s west coast as projected, it would not only be the first major storm to strike the state since Hurricane Michael, but it would also be one of a small number that made landfall on Florida’s west coast.
Meteorologists point out that with the exceptions of tropical storms Eta and Elsa, which hit Florida’s west coast in 2020 and 2021 respectively, the west coast is generally spared major hurricanes, compared with other parts of the state.
Indeed, according to AccuWeather, the historical database showed that since recordkeeping began, about 160 hurricanes have hit Florida, excluding tropical storms. Of these 160, however, only 17 have made landfall on the west coast.
On a related note, the American Automobile Association (AAA) offered that whatever Hurricane Ian’s impact, Florida gas prices should continue to decline.
"Gasoline and oil futures prices plunged seven percent last week, to eight-month lows on concerns that aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve could trigger an economic recession," said Mark Jenkins, spokesman, AAA - The Auto Club Group. "And since Ian is not projected to impact the refineries in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, it's unlikely that the storm itself or the resulting demand, would cause pump prices to spike."
AAA’s assessment, of course, didn’t take into account human nature and isolated incidents of gouging that typically surface in disasters.