Lazaro Aleman
ECB Publishing, Inc.
Look for colder-than-normal temperatures into spring, if the latest seasonal forecast for the February to April period from The Weather Company (TWC) can be believed.
The TWC forecast, in fact, predicts that the most significant cold in aggregate, relative to normal, will be across the southeastern U.S. in the coming three months.
“After an extended winter siesta across much of the country, the pattern has changed again to favor colder and stormier conditions across much of the eastern half of U.S.,” Dr. Todd Crawford, TWC chief meteorologist, is quoted saying.
Crawford goes on to say that the combination of “tropical forcing” from the mature El Niño and the “high-latitude forcing from the recent obliteration of the stratospheric polar vortex” will result in “a highly anomalous colder pattern through much of February and into at least early March.”
“This pattern will come as quite a shock to many after the recent month-long mild spell and relative to last year’s excessively warm February across the East,” Crawford said.
Specific to the Southeast, TWC forecasts a much colder than normal February, a colder than normal March, and a cooler than normal April.
Crawford attributes the colder weather to the fact that the stratospheric polar vortex has been taking a beating.
“There are indications that a significant stratospheric warming event is coming soon, by displacement or split, which may also help to increase probabilities of the sort of high-latitude blocking that would favor a colder late-winter look," Crawford said.
The polar vortex is described as a whirling cone of low pressure that hovers a few miles above the poles and that is strongest in the winter months due to the increased temperature contrast between the polar regions and the mid-latitudes, such as the U.S. and Europe.
“Climate models have been unusually stable and in good agreement in depicting the colder look for the eastern and southern United States for the remainder of winter and into early spring,” Crawford said, adding that it currently appeared as if El Niño will not decay significantly heading into spring.
“Which should favor the continuation of cooler-than-normal temperatures across much of the southern and eastern U.S. into at least May," Crawford said.
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