Lazaro Aleman, ECB Publishing, Inc.
If this week's pre-season Tropical Storm Alberto and the daily deluges aren't enough of an indicator that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season may prove a doozy, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center just released its latest forecast, foretelling a 75-percent chance that the season will be near - or above -normal.
More specifically, the NOAA forecasters are predicting a 35-percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40-percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal 2018 season, which officially begins this Friday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.
In terms of the number of possible storms, NOAA’s forecasters are saying there is a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms, which are storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of the 10 to 16 named storms, forecasters say that five to nine could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher. And one to four, they say, will become major hurricanes, which are category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.
An average hurricane season, according to NOAA, produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, and three of which could be major hurricanes.
Two of the factors driving this latest outlook, according to forecasters, are the possibility of a weak El Niño developing, in combination with near-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. The two factors, the forecasters say, form the backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
The NOAA forecast indicates a slightly more active season than the earlier ones from the The Weather Company and Colorado State University, which projected 12 named storms and five hurricanes.
Regardless of the number of storms that may develop, however, emergency management officials are urging disaster preparedness. This entails having on hand plenty of food, water, medical supplies, batteries, traps and flashlights. They remind residents, businesses and government entities alike that it only takes one storm to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall season.
NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.
Following are some steps that emergency management professional recommend that people take in readiness for the eventuality of a storm:
* Prepare a plan so that you know what you and your family will do in an emergency. Research the locations of hurricane shelters in your area and find out if you can take your pet. Make sure that everyone in the household knows the plan and where the emergency supplies are stored.
* Prepare a kit and stock it with emergency supplies. The kit should include a three-day supply of food and water for each family member and a gallon of water per person per day. Supplies should also include cash, blankets and sleeping bags, first-aid kits, battery-powered radios, flashlights and extra batteries, clothing, necessary medications, pet care, and a list of important phone numbers and important documents, stored in waterproof containers.
* Stay informed and up-to-date on the latest weather information. Watch local news and weather reports, listen for radio updates or stay informed with your computer or smartphone, assuming you have access to the last two.