Lazaro Aleman
ECB Publishing, Inc.
Like clockwork, the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season is set to begin in less than a month, on June 1, and then run through Nov. 30.
And this season, according to the early long-range forecasts of both the universities of Colorado State University (CSU) and North Carolina State University (NCSU), the hurricane activity is expected to be slightly below average in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the entire Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
In its 2023 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity forecast, CSU predicted 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. NCSU’s forecast, meanwhile, calls for 11 to 15 named storms, between six and eight hurricanes, and between two and three major hurricanes.
According to the historical data, the average season has 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
On the same day that the two universities released their forecasts, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released information that the climate pattern known as El Niño is expected to form earlier than previously expected.
La Niña, according to the NOAA, ended in April, ushering in neutral conditions; meaning that neither La Niña nor El Niño currently prevails.
Initially, meteorologists had thought that these neutral conditions would last until some point in the summer or early fall.
NOAA, however, has now moved up the timeline, forecasting a 62-percent chance that El Niño will form between May and July, and an 80 to 90-percent probability that it will form by fall.
According to the NOAA, were El Niño to occur in the fall and winter, it would be the inverse of what has happened the last three years. Among other things, NOAA says, it would make for the likelihood of a cold, wet winter in the Southern United States, and of weaker hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin.
The agency, however, adds the caveat that nothing is guaranteed when it comes to hurricanes.
“‘Associated with’ doesn’t mean that all of these impacts happen during every El Niño episode,” the NOAA cautions.
The NOAA adds that ultimately, it’s sea surface temperatures near the part of the equator in the Pacific Ocean that determine whether it’s a La Niña or El Niño year, or a neutral phase. That’s because both the temperature of the water and the air above it can shift the position of the jet stream, which in turn affects the types of weather experienced on land.
NOAA will release its 2023 hurricane season outlook in late May.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are named from a list that repeats every six years, making the 2023 names the same as the ones in 2017, with a few exceptions. The exceptions are storm names that are removed from the list by the World Meteorological Organization if they were particularly deadly or destructive.
Four hurricane names from the 2017 list that won’t appear on the 2023 list for the Atlantic basin are Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate.
National Hurricane Preparedness Week, meanwhile, was April 30 through May 6, in recognition of which the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports that scientists are looking back thousands of years to gain a better understanding of hurricane patterns and how climate change can impact future storm activity.
It is reported that in one such study led by the USGS to anticipate the future, the agency looked at hurricane activity in northwest Florida going back 2,000 years, when similar climate conditions and sea surface temperatures as today’s existed.
“Knowing what has happened in the past gives insight on potential storm intensity and occurrence in the future,” the agency states.Per the report: “The USGS research suggests that existing records of recent storms may underrepresent how often powerful hurricanes have made landfall in northwest Florida. The research also supports forecasts by organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association that the number of intense hurricanes could increase in the future in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean as the oceans warm.”
Science, the USGS says, can help improve hurricane forecasts and inform policy makers and managers as they prepare adaptation and mitigation plans to protect people, infrastructure and the environment.
“Studying the past provides a new baseline context and perspective of storm activity, as well as giving new insight on how the climate and other environmental factors can influene hurricanes,” the report states.
Already, the USGS-led study in Florida has reportedly identified several strong hurricanes that reached Category 4 or 5 levels and that made landfall between the years 650 and 1250, or 800 to 1,400 years ago.
Prior to this research, according to the USGS, Hurricane Michael in 2018 was the only storm stronger than a Category 3 known to have made landfall on the Florida panhandle. Michael was a Category 5 hurricane that resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S.
“With additional data, the organizations developing climate and hurricane models can build more robust projections on what types of storms could impact northwest Florida and nearby coasts,” the report states.