Lazaro Aleman
ECB Publishing, Inc.
Once again, the Florida Panhandle is under a cone of uncertainty, as Tropical Storm Fred spins in the Caribbean.
According to the advisory from National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 8 a.m. Thursday, Fred was about 80 miles east of Guantanamo, Cuba, and moving west-northwest at about 16 mph, with a decrease in forward motion expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.
The forecast track put the center of Fred moving across the southeastern Bahamas later Thursday and moving along or just north of eastern and central Cuba by Friday and near to the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.
The storm’s maximum sustained winds remained near 35 mph on Thursday, with occasional higher gusts. A slow strengthening of the storm, however, was expected on Friday and into the weekend, as it encountered the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
That said, the NHC noted that an increase in wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height, could disrupt Fred’s circulation and make it difficult for it to gain much intensification, even as it passed over the Gulf’s warm waters.
Regardless of the warm waters’ rejuvenation effect, however, the NHC cautioned that Panhandle residents should closely monitor the storm’s progress and prepare accordingly.
The weather models show Fred having a likelihood of skirting the western coast of Florida and striking the Panhandle somewhere in the vicinity of the Big Bend late Sunday and early Monday. The cone of the storm’s probable path, however, takes in a widespread area, extending from the east coast of Florida to the westernmost side of Mississippi.
According to the NHC’s estimates, Fred has the potential of making landfall as a high-end tropical storm with winds of up to 65 mph.
Whatever the storm’s eventual path, however, showers and thunderstorms are predicted for the Big Bend from Saturday evening onward into next Tuesday. The NHC also warns that heavy rainfall from the storm may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with rapid river rises.
Fred is the sixth named storm of the season, and meteorologists note that it likely signals the start of a more active period, underscoring that the second half of August and into September is a timeframe that is conducive for the brewing of named storms.
Already, a second tropical wave hovered over the Atlantic on Thursday, with the NHC giving it a 30-percent chance of development.