Lazaro Aleman
ECB Publishing, Inc.
North Florida and the Big Bend area could be in for some tropical storm weather, if not an actual tropical storm, by late this weekend or early next week.
Much uncertainty existed earlier this week as to the eventual track and intensity of what is now Tropical Storm Isaias, although it was still being called Tropical Cyclone Nine (TC-9) as of Wednesday evening, July 29.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Isaias was expected to pass south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night. It was then moving west northwest at 18 mph, with a reduction in its forward speed expected over the next 24 hours.
On its previously projected track, the NHC model showed the system passing near or over eastern Cuba by Friday, and approaching the southern tip of Florida by Friday night. The projected warning cone put it over the west coast of Florida by Sunday and near North Florida on Monday morning. That path changed, however, when Tropical Storm Isaias began tracking east as of 8 a.m. on Thursday, July 30, running up America's east coast; Jefferson and Madison County sit just west of the forecasted cone with portions of Hamilton and Suwannee County within the forecasted cone.
Other models, however, showed a possible rapid strengthening of the storm that could steer it northward earlier and up Florida’s center or east coast. The reason for the uncertainty of the forecast is that the system was still weak and not well defined as of midweek.
Even so, the early forecast for North Florida and the Big Bend areas called for heavy showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend and into early next week, beginning on Friday.
The average number of named storms for the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through November 30, is 12, with six of these storms becoming hurricanes. This season, however, is forecast to be above average, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other forecasters predicting up to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of them becoming hurricanes, defined as bearing winds of 74 mph or greater.
And of the six to 10, three to six could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Already, the season has seen six tropical storms: Arthur and Bertha, both of which formed ahead of the official start of the season, and Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay and Gonzalo, plus Hurricane Hanna, which hit Texas last weekend.