Leah Androski
ECB Publishing, Inc.
With hurricane season rapidly approaching, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an “above-normal” hurricane season. The start date of the Atlantic hurricane season is on Sunday, June 1, and lasts until Sunday, November 30.
NOAA released there was a 30 percent chance of a “near-normal,” a 60 percent chance for “above-normal” and a 10 percent chance for a “below-normal” season. NOAA also predicts around 13 to 19 named storms (39 mph winds and up), with six to 10 of those forecast to form into hurricanes (74 mph winds and up). Three to five of these storms are predicted to be major hurricanes (category three, four or five hurricanes, with winds of 11 mph and up).
The “above-normal” prediction from NOAA is from warmer ocean water temperatures, weaker wind shears and an increased activity from the West African Monsoon. These factors all tend to increase the chance of a tropical storm forming. Hotter water temperatures helps fuel storms while they develop and the weaker wind shears help the storms form faster with no obstacles. The West African monsoon can help produce stronger and longer living Atlantic storms.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director, Ken Graham, stated. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”